Economy Hype

Just had a very interesting meeting today with a bank executive from Toronto-Dominion bank(TD bank).
This guy, Mike Peterson, came into the warehouse today to introduce himself. He arrived from Canada this week to Cherry Hill at the Commerce Bank main hub, getting "acquainted" with the local business environment. What was to be a 15 min meet and greet, turned into a 2 hour discussion over lunch on the economy.

In a nut shell, what the media is failing or hiding from us is the reality of just how bad this downturn is. The source of the global recession is trillions of dollars in bad assets(mortgages).
The ONLY way to revert this is not artificial liquidity(bailout plan), but liquidity through economic stimulation via tax relief.

According to Mike, the reason why the market is so volatile has not so much to do with the current situation, rather speculation of future market conditions. He pointed out that since this downturn, the market reacted positively every time a stimulus or bailout plan was rumored, and tanks every time someone from Capitol Hill holds a negative press conference.

The TD bank merger with Commerce almost dissolved due to this. Luckily, this bank,(Commerce na), unlike most, had very little asset attrition mainly due to its 'high volume' approach to individual accounts and small local business investment.

All this 'bailout' talk is frankly, a CYA for everyone involved in this mortgage debacle. The auto industry, believe it or not, fell into this scheme as well. Most don't realize that since the late 70s, GM, Ford,& Chrysler, got into the baking industry, not just to finance vehicle loans, but to engage in asset investments, and mortgages, in order to leverage liabilities like pensions, health care, salaries, bonuses, etc.

The market would be better off if congress does nothing, but announces no tax, dividend, cap gain increases, and follows up with legislation extending the tax cuts beyond 2010.
He, (Mike), was even so bold to suggests that all Obama has to do as pres. elect, is to announce a press conference and declare no tax increases during his first term, "...and watch the market rally." He then admitted that because TD bank is forecasting cap gain and dividend rates to increase by 2010, that the $1,000,000.00 revolving cash account for SunEPS, will no longer have a 30 day no interest period for the first 500K, and instead of a 6%apr, it would increase to 9%.
He suggests to counter this with increased surcharges, "that's what we're doing,"he says.
Not so easy when 99% of your ATMs are in the ghetto.

Some things to look out for according to him;

increased service fees from your bank
gas stations going back to cash/credit pricing
businesses dishing out unprecedented extravagant deals and discounts this Christmas
Circuit City to go out of business by end of 1st quarter next year
credit card companies increasing interest rates(duh)
I like this one...car companies giving buy one get one free or half price on a second vehicle, along with 0% interest!
Pharmaceutical companies migrating to Canada
possible DHL/FedEx merger

I finally asked him if the government is looking into a possible new GSEs in the investment/pension industry.
His response..."be careful what you wish for."
I guess we shall see.